Laut China Selatan – Common Operating Picture (COP)

Analisis Strategik Berdasarkan Model RISIK

GSPS

ATM

MINDEF

Risikan – Pemerhatian 90 Hari

Intelligence Observations

Key Observations

🔴 CCG activity meningkat di Second Thomas & Luconia Shoals
🟡 Barrier semula di Scarborough
🔵 Malaysia tingkat patrol APMM & TLDM
🟢 ASEAN–China reaktifkan rundingan COC

Incident Frequency

6

Luconia

10

Thomas

8

Scarborough

5

Spratly

Isu Utama LCS

Key Issues in South China Sea

1️⃣ Kedaulatan & FON

Grey-zone tactics
Sovereignty disputes and Freedom of Navigation challenges through non-military coercion

2️⃣ Aset Tenaga

Risiko pencerobohan Petronas
Energy assets vulnerability and potential encroachment on Malaysian oil & gas operations

3️⃣ COC

Jurang diplomasi vs realiti
Gap between diplomatic negotiations and ground reality in Code of Conduct implementation

Sentimen Serantau

Regional Sentiment Analysis

🇵🇭 Filipina

Nada tegas, anti-coercion
Firm stance against coercive activities, increased documentation of incidents, strengthened alliance partnerships

🇲🇾 Malaysia

Diplomasi berhemah, stabiliti ekonomi
Measured diplomatic approach, prioritizing economic stability while maintaining sovereignty claims

UNCLOS EEZ Diplomasi Damai Maritime Security Regional Stability Multilateral Dialogue

Aktor & Pengaruh

Key Actors & Influence

🇨🇳 China Coast Guard

Water cannon & barrier
Aggressive enforcement actions, installation of barriers, increased patrol frequency

🇵🇭 Filipina + Sekutu

Latihan & dokumentasi insiden
Joint exercises with allies, systematic incident documentation, transparency initiatives

🇲🇾 Malaysia

APMM/TLDM hadir berterusan
Continuous presence operations, coordinated patrols, measured response protocols

🌏 ASEAN

COC & diplomasi
Code of Conduct negotiations, diplomatic engagement, multilateral coordination

Tindakan & Naratif Strategik

Strategic Actions & Counter-Narrative

📢 Kontra-Naratif

🔹 "Malaysia pertahan EEZ ikut UNCLOS"
🔹 "Tiada provokasi, hanya perlindungan ekonomi biru"

#LautChinaSelatan #MaritimeSecurity

💡 Cadangan

🔸 EEZ Presence Lines + COP heatmap
🔸 Docu-Shield video proof
🔸 OSINT + alert 2-jam model

Garis Masa Insiden

Incident Timeline

OGOS 2025

CCG 12nm Luconia

SEPTEMBER 2025

Water cannon, Second Thomas

OKTOBER 2025

Barrier Scarborough

Risk Assessment Matrix

Likelihood vs Impact Analysis

Eskalasi Taktikal

Sederhana–Tinggi

Gangguan EEZ

Sederhana

Salah Kira

Tinggi

COC Berkesan

Rendah–Sederhana

Haluan GSPS 3 Bulan Akan Datang

GSPS Strategic Direction - Next 3 Months

🔍 Kukuhkan risikan OSINT
📢 Komunikasi publik pro-Malaysia
⚠️ Sistem amaran awal bersepadu
📊 Naratif: "Bukti bukan bunyi bising"

🇲🇾 GSPS ATM 🇲🇾