Laut China Selatan – Command Center (Model RISIK)

GSPS ATM
R - Risikan
I - Isu
S - Sentimen
I - Influence
K - Kontra-Naratif
Timeline

Aktiviti & Data Risikan (90 Hari)

10
Major Encounters
4
Diplomatic Notes
2
ASEAN Responses

🗺️ Hotspot Analysis

Second Thomas Shoal
High Risk
Luconia Shoals
Medium Risk
Scarborough Shoal
High Risk
Spratly Islands
Medium Risk
🛡️
CCG Sightings
47 vessels tracked in Malaysian EEZ waters with increased frequency near energy assets.
⚓
Patrol Frequency
Daily patrols increased by 35% with extended duration and larger vessel formations.
✈️
Air/Naval Exercises
6 major exercises conducted with focus on amphibious and anti-access capabilities.

Isu & Cabaran Serantau

🚢
1️⃣ Kedaulatan & Freedom of Navigation
Challenges to maritime sovereignty with increased assertiveness in disputed waters affecting international shipping lanes.
⚡
2️⃣ Risiko terhadap Aset Tenaga & EEZ
Threats to energy exploration activities and exclusive economic zone rights impacting national energy security.
💧
3️⃣ Taktik 'Grey Zone' & Water Cannon
Escalating use of non-military coercive tactics including water cannon attacks and vessel ramming incidents.
🤝
4️⃣ Keberkesanan Code of Conduct ASEAN–China
Limited effectiveness of diplomatic frameworks in preventing incidents and managing territorial disputes.
📋 RMK-13 Focus: Maritime Stability
Strategic emphasis on enhancing maritime domain awareness, strengthening regional partnerships, and developing indigenous defense capabilities for 2026-2030 period.

Analisis Sentimen Serantau

📊 Regional Sentiment

Positive
55%
🟢 Positive: 55%
🟡 Neutral: 35%
🔴 Negative: 10%

🏷️ Key Terms

UNCLOS Diplomasi Damai Kesiapsiagaan COC Maritime Security Regional Stability
🇲🇾
Malaysia Response
"Calm & professional tone - maintaining diplomatic channels while asserting sovereign rights through measured responses."
🇵🇭
Philippines Response
"Firm & defiant stance - direct confrontation of aggressive actions with strong international legal backing."

Influence & Aktor Utama

🌐 Regional Actor Network

🇨🇳
China
🇲🇾
Malaysia
🏛️
ASEAN
🇺🇸
US
🇵🇭
Philippines
🏛️ Whole-of-Government Coordination
GSPS ATM: Strategic planning and capability development
MINDEF: Defense policy and military readiness
KDN/APMM: Maritime law enforcement and border security
Coordination: Integrated approach ensuring unified national response

Strategic Counter-Narrative & Response

💪
1️⃣ Capability First
Readiness, bukan provokasi - Building defensive capabilities while maintaining non-aggressive posture and diplomatic engagement.
🗺️
2️⃣ RMK-13 Roadmap
Strategic development plan 2026–2030 focusing on maritime domain awareness and indigenous defense industry growth.
🏭
3️⃣ Local Industry & Veterans
Industri tempatan, pekerjaan veteran & belia - Creating sustainable defense ecosystem with local employment opportunities.
🤝
4️⃣ MINDEF-KDN/APMM Synergy
Sinergi perkukuh ESSZONE & SCS - Strengthened coordination between defense and maritime enforcement agencies.
🛡️
GSPS ATM
"Bukti, bukan bunyi bising."

Garis Masa Isu & Tindakan (Ogos–Oktober 2025)

📅 Critical Events Timeline

Ogos 2025
CCG Shadow Operations
September 2025
Water Cannon Incident
Oktober 2025
Barrier Installation